There are no areas during the first quarter of 2008 that we would consider to be Seller’s Markets. We’ve moved into a neutral market in most residential areas, but this will change as the year moves on. Buyers will be aggressively negotiating in those areas that have increased supply on the market.
I have seen a marked increase in showings on my listings just in the last few weeks, so the spring and summer buyers are out and looking. This will change our report for next quarter possibly into more of a seller’s market in a few areas.
Considering Absorption Rate is one way to measure the health of our real estate market. Absorption Rate designates the number of months of housing supply on hand. The larger the supply, the more competition there is for sellers and the higher likelihood that prices will drop or concessions will be offered. The market has definitely slowed in the last quarter.
More Months of Supply = Buyer’s Market = Possible Reduced Pricing and/or Concessions
Fewer Months of Supply = Seller’s Market = Possible Price Increases and/or Bidding Wars
The commonly accepted separation between markets is:
Seller’s Market 1-4 months of supply
Neutral Market 5-6 months of supply
Buyer’s Market 7 months and above
Single Family Homes
|
Area
|
Jan
AR
|
Feb
AR
|
Mar
AR
|
Avg.
AR
|
Market
Condition
|
|
Aurora North
|
6.99
|
6.51
|
5.73
|
6.41
|
Neutral
|
|
Aurora South
|
6.12
|
6.36
|
5.23
|
5.90
|
Neutral
|
|
Broomfield
|
9.54
|
9.61
|
8.14
|
9.10
|
Buyers
|
|
Douglas Cnty West
|
10.21
|
14.18
|
10.12
|
11.50
|
Buyers
|
|
Douglas/Elbert/Parker
|
10.94
|
9.73
|
8.57
|
9.75
|
Buyers
|
|
Highland Ranch/Lone Tree
|
5.11
|
5.17
|
5.37
|
5.22
|
Neutral
|
|
Denver Northeast
|
7.25
|
7.38
|
5.73
|
6.79
|
Neutral
|
|
Denver Northwest
|
6.22
|
6.58
|
6.28
|
6.36
|
Neutral
|
|
Denver Southeast
|
9.99
|
10.64
|
9.03
|
9.89
|
Buyers
|
|
Denver Southwest
|
6.49
|
6.85
|
5.91
|
6.42
|
Neutral
|
|
Jeffco Central
|
6.86
|
8.56
|
5.12
|
6.85
|
Neutral
|
|
Jeffco North
|
5.00
|
5.89
|
4.59
|
5.16
|
Neutral
|
|
Jeffco South
|
5.23
|
6.86
|
5.60
|
5.90
|
Neutral
|
|
Jeffco West/Golden
|
7.73
|
7.11
|
6.83
|
7.22
|
Buyers
|
|
Jeffco North Central
|
6.54
|
6.74
|
4.42
|
5.90
|
Neutral
|
|
Jeffco South Central
|
5.45
|
6.75
|
5.63
|
5.94
|
Neutral
|
Check out the average absorption rate in Northwest Denver. At 17.52 months of supply for the first quarter, it is tough to get your home sold. It may, however, be a great place to get a wonderful deal if you are looking to buy.
Condominiums/Townhomes
|
Area
|
Jan
AR
|
Feb
AR
|
Mar
AR
|
Avg.
AR
|
Market
Condition
|
|
Aurora North
|
5.57
|
5.71
|
5.89
|
5.72
|
Neutral
|
|
Aurora South
|
7.87
|
6.57
|
5.69
|
6.71
|
Neutral
|
|
Broomfield
|
16.0
|
29.0
|
7.00
|
17.33
|
Buyers
|
|
Douglas Cnty West
|
6.79
|
9.83
|
7.25
|
7.96
|
Neutral
|
|
Douglas/Elbert/Parker
|
8.07
|
5.36
|
6.68
|
6.70
|
Neutral
|
|
Highland Ranch/Lone Tree
|
6.09
|
9.33
|
8.61
|
8.01
|
Neutral
|
|
Denver Northeast
|
20.89
|
11.85
|
19.85
|
17.53
|
Buyers
|
|
Denver Northwest
|
10.08
|
8.44
|
16.44
|
11.65
|
Buyers
|
|
Denver Southeast
|
9.76
|
10.30
|
11.07
|
10.38
|
Buyers
|
|
Denver Southwest
|
9.04
|
9.48
|
7.43
|
8.65
|
Buyers
|
|
Jeffco Central
|
7.00
|
6.69
|
6.92
|
6.87
|
Neutral
|
|
Jeffco North
|
3.36
|
8.00
|
7.33
|
6.23
|
Neutral
|
|
Jeffco South
|
8.31
|
7.66
|
7.42
|
7.80
|
Buyers
|
|
Jeffco West/Golden
|
6.89
|
4.82
|
6.67
|
6.13
|
Neutral
|
|
Jeffco North Central
|
8.47
|
8.47
|
4.41
|
7.12
|
Neutral
|
|
Jeffco South Central
|
6.88
|
7.86
|
5.95
|
6.90
|
Neutral
|
There are fewer homes on the market compared to prior years. It appears many prospective sellers are planning to wait this market out. Are we recovering? We are all keeping our fingers crossed and that may be the best we can do right now.
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